Week 1
On James Martin -- He’s as conversant with economic, environmental and weapons systems as the modern computer systems he helped to pioneer. He’s as informed about environmental degradation as he is degraded cultures. He is as conscious of genetically modified food as he is of the imminent prospect of genetically modified people. A physicist by training, he’s also fluent with the full range of social sciences. - Martin wants humankind to maximise the benefits of modern technology while minimising the attendant risks. These risks, he concedes, can never be entirely eliminated but for the most part they can be anticipated, prepared for and, in some instances, preemptively addressed. On Matt Ridley -- a blind belief that what has worked before will always work, regardless of a changing environment, whether financial or planetary. Even in a world of limited resources, he believes, humans should always triumph because, well, that is what we have been doing for the past 10,000 years.
Week 6
The Role of Integrated Perspectives in Response to 21st Century Challenges As clearly articulated by James Martin in his essay 'The Meaning of the 21st Century', our era is saturated by an overwhelming amount of problems requiring urgent attention. He states, "At the start of the 21st Century, humankind finds itself on a non-sustainable course- a course that unless it is changed, will lead to catastrophes of awesome consequences." However, the present period being transitional in nature (Great Transition, Raskin et a. 2008), is not without opportunities for human choices. The opportunities for human creativity to solve 21st Century challenges can only be met through the intergration of perspectives.
According to James Martin, humans today stand at a crossroads. We are facing numerous mega problems and serious global challenges from every direction. Our global population is oversized and it is still growing at an alarming rate, world resources are dwindling fast and the planet can not sustain our numbers. As if overpopulation is not enough, we have excessively become parasitic in our lifestyles, we are cnsumming far more than we need. The result of our overpopulation and overconsumption is that we have and continue to pollute the air, water, land, and the whole environment with toxic industrial, commercial and domestic waste. This chain reaction is culminating in shortages of clean water, toxic gases in the air are causing diseases, climatic change is an increased pace and resulting in a whole disruption of the ecosystem. Global warming or rising temperatures is causing ice-caps and glaciers to melt, resulting in rising sea levels. Rising sea levels if unstopped will cause the already highly populated coastal cities to be flooded or destroyed resulting in mass migrations of people to inland locations, the end result being further resource shortages and conflicts. Linked to today's growing resource shortages and extreme poverty are political conflicts and growing threats of terrorism with possibilities of the use of weapons of mass destruction by non-state parties. The search for efficient energy led socities to use nuclear energy, however recent destruction of nuclear plants in Japan due to an earthquake is forcing many major countries to reexamine their overdependance on nuclear energy.
James Martin's dire outlook and view of the world is just one perspective in a world of competing views. Matt Ridley, on the other hand has a very optimistic view of the world. Ridley believes that we are entering better times as the miracles of technology and human genius are making the world much better. He dismisses what he sees as overly pessimistic views of global climatic change, and instead sees socio-economic progress under free market capitalism and democratic civil institutions. The third position or worldview is occupied by those who believe that humanity and the planet can only be saved by humans adopting significant transformation into a more sustainable way of doing business on the planet.
All current perspectives on the state of the 21st Century being taken into consideration, what remains for a fact is that humanity today is faced with serious problems threatining our very existence. Most of these problems are wicked problems. Wicked problems are very difficult to solve and they are complex in that they have many interdependencies, are often multi-causal, have no clear solutions and involve multiple stakeholders to solve. If new technologies and a revoution to sustainability are to be successful, we need to view and handle the problems in a new and different way from the past. Past attempts to solve some of these problems were unsuccessful because the problems were addressed in a fragmented manner without a unity of disciplines e.g. humanities and sciences. An interdisciplinary, integrated approach helps us to fully understand the problems from many dimensions and disciplinary points of view. This approach gives us an opportunity to come up with unified, balanced, and holistic solutions. It also brings colloborative effort and participation by all stack-holders. The wicked problems and challanges of the 21st Century can only be effectively addressed when academic institutions, researchers, private business, governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, individuals, families and communities come together and contribute to finding and implementing integrated and holistic solutions to today's global issues.
World Futures
The Global Scenario Group (GSG) analysed world futures, and explain three possible outcomes, namely Conventional Worlds, Barbarization and Great Transition.The future as I foresee unfolding is a combination of three worldviews, Conventional worlds, Barbarization and Great Transitions in varying proportions.
The Conventional worlds scenario alone not the most possible future because of the current roles corporations and Government play in today's world.Current global market trends have only served to strengthen corporations without any prospect of ever limiting their growth and ppower.Today's largest transnational corporations' annual revenues exceed one-quarter trillions, surpassing the GNP of the majority of the world's nations. Than levelof economic strength makes them resistant to change and also allows them to influence politics and government in favor of corporate interest even at the expense of social and environmental sustainability. This scenario clearly visible in American politics where corporations pour large amounts of money to support partiesand candidates, then their lobbists constantly pressure and make deal with political representatives to influnce policy in their favor. Such an environmentmakes it very difficult for corporation to ever change nor Governments to impliment meaningful reforms.I do not foresee Barbarization ever fully taking over the planet, however limitated and isolated Barbarization is a very likely scenario. Already in the past we have witnessed incidence of pockets of fortresses in a few failed states due to political violence or high crime.(URBAN FORTRESSES - Gated communities as a reaction to crime- http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/asr/11no4/Landman.html)
Evergrowing environmental and climatic disasters and economic upheavals resulting in some societal structures and systems failing or break down, is going tocreate pockets of Barbarization. Mass refuges from major cities destroyed by rising sea levels, violence over food and water shortanges will prompt some to hide in fortresses.This scenario will then prompt the governments and institutions worldwide to respond aggressively leading to the Conventional Worlds Policy Reform scenario, as well as a simultaneously rise of the Great Transitions New Sustainability Paradigm. There are two ways the Great Transition can occure, first as a result of limited Breakdown followed by some level of Policy Reform by Government and supported by communities tired of the problems and a broken systems of society.
The second possibility is a deliberate community led migration to sustainability. This people's or community-driven Great Transition to sustainability is the best possible scenario.It will required significant changes in individual and community values and behaviors, as well as institutional and corporate value changes.Changes in values will result in a shift from consumerism, individualism and domination of nature to human solidarity, ecological sensibility and enhanced quality of life.However, manifesting this scenario is not without challenges. A people led revolution to sustainability requires a consciousness, well informed public who understand theimportance of the behavior and how to effectively use their power towards a sustainable future. What will be the catalist to transform masses towards the path of sustainability?Unperturbed by extreme conditions or disasters it is very difficult for masses to make a revolutionary shift in awareness from mere consumers. Non-governmental organizations and community groups will probably play a significant role in educating communities through campaigns and effective use of modern communications technology. This may result in the creations of a global citizen movement rooted in values of quality of life, himan solidarity, and environmental sustainability.
8801 Critical Reflections
Week 1
On James Martin
-- He’s as conversant with economic, environmental and weapons systems as the modern computer systems he helped to pioneer. He’s as informed about environmental degradation as he is degraded cultures. He is as conscious of genetically modified food as he is of the imminent prospect of genetically modified people. A physicist by training, he’s also fluent with the full range of social sciences.
- Martin wants humankind to maximise the benefits of modern technology while minimising the attendant risks. These risks, he concedes, can never be entirely eliminated but for the most part they can be anticipated, prepared for and, in some instances, preemptively addressed.
On Matt Ridley
-- a blind belief that what has worked before will always work, regardless of a changing environment, whether financial or planetary. Even in a world of limited resources, he believes, humans should always triumph because, well, that is what we have been doing for the past 10,000 years.
Week 6
The Role of Integrated Perspectives in Response to 21st Century Challenges
As clearly articulated by James Martin in his essay 'The Meaning of the 21st Century', our era is saturated by an overwhelming amount of problems requiring urgent attention. He states, "At the start of the 21st Century, humankind finds itself on a non-sustainable course- a course that unless it is changed, will lead to catastrophes of awesome consequences." However, the present period being transitional in nature (Great Transition, Raskin et a. 2008), is not without opportunities for human choices. The opportunities for human creativity to solve 21st Century challenges can only be met through the intergration of perspectives.
According to James Martin, humans today stand at a crossroads. We are facing numerous mega problems and serious global challenges from every direction. Our global population is oversized and it is still growing at an alarming rate, world resources are dwindling fast and the planet can not sustain our numbers. As if overpopulation is not enough, we have excessively become parasitic in our lifestyles, we are cnsumming far more than we need. The result of our overpopulation and overconsumption is that we have and continue to pollute the air, water, land, and the whole environment with toxic industrial, commercial and domestic waste. This chain reaction is culminating in shortages of clean water, toxic gases in the air are causing diseases, climatic change is an increased pace and resulting in a whole disruption of the ecosystem. Global warming or rising temperatures is causing ice-caps and glaciers to melt, resulting in rising sea levels. Rising sea levels if unstopped will cause the already highly populated coastal cities to be flooded or destroyed resulting in mass migrations of people to inland locations, the end result being further resource shortages and conflicts. Linked to today's growing resource shortages and extreme poverty are political conflicts and growing threats of terrorism with possibilities of the use of weapons of mass destruction by non-state parties. The search for efficient energy led socities to use nuclear energy, however recent destruction of nuclear plants in Japan due to an earthquake is forcing many major countries to reexamine their overdependance on nuclear energy.
James Martin's dire outlook and view of the world is just one perspective in a world of competing views. Matt Ridley, on the other hand has a very optimistic view of the world. Ridley believes that we are entering better times as the miracles of technology and human genius are making the world much better. He dismisses what he sees as overly pessimistic views of global climatic change, and instead sees socio-economic progress under free market capitalism and democratic civil institutions. The third position or worldview is occupied by those who believe that humanity and the planet can only be saved by humans adopting significant transformation into a more sustainable way of doing business on the planet.
All current perspectives on the state of the 21st Century being taken into consideration, what remains for a fact is that humanity today is faced with serious problems threatining our very existence. Most of these problems are wicked problems. Wicked problems are very difficult to solve and they are complex in that they have many interdependencies, are often multi-causal, have no clear solutions and involve multiple stakeholders to solve.
If new technologies and a revoution to sustainability are to be successful, we need to view and handle the problems in a new and different way from the past. Past attempts to solve some of these problems were unsuccessful because the problems were addressed in a fragmented manner without a unity of disciplines e.g. humanities and sciences. An interdisciplinary, integrated approach helps us to fully understand the problems from many dimensions and disciplinary points of view. This approach gives us an opportunity to come up with unified, balanced, and holistic solutions. It also brings colloborative effort and participation by all stack-holders. The wicked problems and challanges of the 21st Century can only be effectively addressed when academic institutions, researchers, private business, governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, individuals, families and communities come together and contribute to finding and implementing integrated and holistic solutions to today's global issues.
World Futures
The Global Scenario Group (GSG) analysed world futures, and explain three possible outcomes, namely Conventional Worlds, Barbarization and Great Transition.The future as I foresee unfolding is a combination of three worldviews, Conventional worlds, Barbarization and Great Transitions in varying proportions.
The Conventional worlds scenario alone not the most possible future because of the current roles corporations and Government play in today's world.Current global market trends have only served to strengthen corporations without any prospect of ever limiting their growth and ppower.Today's largest transnational corporations' annual revenues exceed one-quarter trillions, surpassing the GNP of the majority of the world's nations. Than levelof economic strength makes them resistant to change and also allows them to influence politics and government in favor of corporate interest even at the expense of social and environmental sustainability. This scenario clearly visible in American politics where corporations pour large amounts of money to support partiesand candidates, then their lobbists constantly pressure and make deal with political representatives to influnce policy in their favor. Such an environmentmakes it very difficult for corporation to ever change nor Governments to impliment meaningful reforms.I do not foresee Barbarization ever fully taking over the planet, however limitated and isolated Barbarization is a very likely scenario. Already in the past we have witnessed incidence of pockets of fortresses in a few failed states due to political violence or high crime.(URBAN FORTRESSES - Gated communities as a reaction to crime- http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/asr/11no4/Landman.html)
Evergrowing environmental and climatic disasters and economic upheavals resulting in some societal structures and systems failing or break down, is going tocreate pockets of Barbarization. Mass refuges from major cities destroyed by rising sea levels, violence over food and water shortanges will prompt some to hide in fortresses.This scenario will then prompt the governments and institutions worldwide to respond aggressively leading to the Conventional Worlds Policy Reform scenario, as well as a simultaneously rise of the Great Transitions New Sustainability Paradigm. There are two ways the Great Transition can occure, first as a result of limited Breakdown followed by some level of Policy Reform by Government and supported by communities tired of the problems and a broken systems of society.
The second possibility is a deliberate community led migration to sustainability. This people's or community-driven Great Transition to sustainability is the best possible scenario.It will required significant changes in individual and community values and behaviors, as well as institutional and corporate value changes.Changes in values will result in a shift from consumerism, individualism and domination of nature to human solidarity, ecological sensibility and enhanced quality of life.However, manifesting this scenario is not without challenges. A people led revolution to sustainability requires a consciousness, well informed public who understand theimportance of the behavior and how to effectively use their power towards a sustainable future. What will be the catalist to transform masses towards the path of sustainability?Unperturbed by extreme conditions or disasters it is very difficult for masses to make a revolutionary shift in awareness from mere consumers. Non-governmental organizations and community groups will probably play a significant role in educating communities through campaigns and effective use of modern communications technology. This may result in the creations of a global citizen movement rooted in values of quality of life, himan solidarity, and environmental sustainability.